William J. Luther

William J. Luther

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8/30/24

Inflation Slightly Below Target in July

“The federal funds rate target range is likely to be at least a full percentage point lower by the end of the year. That would significantly reduce the distance the Fed needs to travel in order to return monetary policy to neutral.” ~William J. Luther
William J. Luther

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8/9/24

Competing Narratives on Real Wages

“Democrats want to take credit for the higher real wages. Republicans want to deny that real wages are higher. Both are obscuring the facts.” ~William J. Luther
William J. Luther

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8/1/24

Should the Fed Get Credit for Lower Inflation?

“Labor market developments cannot explain the decline in nominal spending growth. Tighter monetary policy can… Given the lags of monetary policy, the Fed may have already undershot its target.” ~William J. Luther
William J. Luther

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7/26/24

Inflation Remained Low in June

“Despite the progress made on inflation over the last three months, and the risk of overtightening noted by Waller and Powell, the FOMC is unlikely to cut its federal funds rate target next week.” ~William J. Luther
William J. Luther

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6/28/24

Prices Decline in May, Monetary Policy Tightens

“Prices today are 8.9 percentage points higher than they would have been had the Fed hit its 2-percent inflation target since January 2020.”
William J. Luther

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6/12/24

FOMC Holds Rates, Revises Forward Guidance

“Just as the FOMC was slow to adjust policy when inflation surged in late 2021, it will be slow to adjust policy as inflation returns to and falls below its target in 2024.” ~William J Luther
William J. Luther

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6/1/24

Inflation Continued to Decline in April

“While inflation is declining once more, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have suggested rates would need to remain high for longer than they had previously projected.” ~William J. Luther
William J. Luther

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4/26/24

Inflation Declined in March, But Remains High

“Market participants continue to expect the Fed will cut its federal funds rate target this year — just not anytime soon.” ~ William J. Luther
William J. Luther

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3/29/24

Inflation Remained Elevated in February

“Market participants continue to expect three cuts this year — and that those cuts will begin in the first half of the year. But they have adjusted the odds.” ~William J. Luther
William J. Luther

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3/1/24

Is Inflation on the Rise Again?

“The Fed should be looking ahead and adjusting monetary policy in light of its forecasts. Instead, its eyes are fixed on the rear-view mirror.” ~William J. Luther