Monetary Policy
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Should the Fed Stop Tightening?
“The Fed should stay the course. Putting the nail in the inflationary coffin is more important than hyper-calibrating a ‘soft landing.’ But it likely won’t be long before we’re done.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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The FOMC: To Pause or Not to Pause?
“Given uncertainties surrounding the unusual stimulus and the lagged effects of monetary policy, it would be prudent to hold the Federal Funds rate constant for a few months and see how the economy responds to recent policy.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer
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Headline Inflation Falls, But Core Inflation Remains Elevated
“At this point, it seems likely Fed officials will move forward with a 25 basis point hike. But how high they will push rates this year and how long they will keep rates high remain open questions.” ~ William J. Luther
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FOMC Ratchets Up Inflation Projection
“FOMC member projections suggest that inflation will come down only gradually over the next two to three years and that the price level will remain permanently elevated.” ~ William J. Luther
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Does Government Spending Lead to Inflation?
“The key point is that it is the central bank’s willingness to help finance government spending, not the spending itself, that drives inflation. In short: inflation remains a monetary phenomenon.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger
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Does the Fed Control Interest Rates?
“The Fed is a failed institution in need of major reforms. But we won’t make the right changes if we don’t understand the basic relationship between central banks and capital markets.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Supply, Demand, and Inflation: The Big Picture
“Where did all this inflation come from? Supply-side issues are a problem, but in terms of magnitudes, it just doesn’t make sense to call them the chief contributor.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Fed Slows Pace of Rate Hikes
“The decision FOMC members make in February will depend on the inflation data released between now and then—and how Fed officials interpret that data.” ~ William J. Luther
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Congress Can Restore the Integrity of the Dollar
“The historical record is clear: Gold-backed money is fully capable of delivering short-run stability and long-run prosperity. The Fed can’t.” ~ David Brat & Alexander William Salter
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Inflation Remains Stubbornly High
“The neutral real interest rate is thought to be around 0.25 percent, suggesting the Fed may need to raise its nominal interest rate target another 175 to 200 basis points just to get to neutral.” ~ William J. Luther
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Economic Growth Doesn’t Cause Inflation. Here’s Why
“It’s important to get the basic economic relationships right when discussing monetary policy. Economic growth isn’t inflationary. Journalists and central bankers should stop saying otherwise.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Inflated Hopes and Burst Bubbles
“The Fed’s chief task is to restore its lost credibility. In retrospect, the switch to average inflation targeting was a mistake. It gave the Fed plausible deniability for noisier, less predictable policy.” ~ Alexander William Salter
