Peter C. Earle
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Continues to Rise in April 2025
The Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose to 293.8 in April 2025 on the heels of an 0.34 percent gain. This marks the fifth monthly increase in a row for AIER’s […]
Tariff Tension: Will US Shelves Be Empty By Late May?
After nearly a month under the Trump administration’s renewed tariff regime, signs of economic strain are beginning to surface across US supply chains, inventories, and consumer sentiment. The lag effect […]
Tariffs Instead of Taxes? A Back-of-Envelope Estimate
In an April 27 post on Truth Social, President Trump floated a politically ambitious idea: replacing federal income taxes — at least for Americans earning under $200,000 per year — […]
Why Home Prices Are Cratering in Florida
Florida’s housing market has moved decisively from scorching-hot to increasingly fragile. After experiencing some of the nation’s steepest home price appreciation during the Pandemic Housing Boom, Florida is now leading […]
Turning Treasury Securities into Century Bonds Is a Dead End
In times of rising debt and fiscal strain, unconventional ideas occasionally surface as ways to manage the US government’s borrowing obligations. Few have forgotten the trillion-dollar platinum coin scheme a […]
Business Conditions Monthly February 2025
In February 2025, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators painted a picture of a moderately slowing but still resilient US economy. The Leading Indicator held at 54 for the second […]
Credit Markets on Edge as Tariff Pressure Builds
Credit markets are becoming increasingly vulnerable to fallout from the emerging trade war. While the media will continue to focus on headline tariff announcements and retaliatory measures, structural risks are […]
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Climbs Slightly in March 2025
The Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.18 percent in March 2025, bringing the index to 292.9. The March increase brings the number of consecutive increases in the AIER inflation measure […]
Unpacking the Assumptions Behind the Mar-a-Lago Accord
The high degree of focus on tariffs under the new Trump administration has led to a flurry of new analyses attempting to determine their economic effects. One of the most […]
The Tariff Crash of 2025: The Price of Economic Amnesia
Over the last two days of the past week, US equity markets crashed as a result of the rollout of a tariff program that was not only non-reciprocal but also […]
