With our Leaders index holding below the critical threshold of 50 for the second month in a row, AIER researchers judge the risk of recession to be elevated and have edged closer to calling one. However, a combination of the Leaders not weakening further and some potentially positive signs that aren’t reflected in our model justifies maintaining a cautious outlook instead. Also, our model uses data that may be revised in coming months, which could alter the signals from individual indicators. So we believe it is prudent to wait until more information becomes available before asserting that a recession is probable.
Next/Previous Section:
1.Overview
2. Economy
3. Inflation
4. Policy
5. Investing
6. Pulling It All Together/Appendix