Monetary Economics

Nicolás Cachanosky

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7/19/24

Milei’s New Monetary Regime for Argentina

“Despite its controversial nature, full dollarization remains the monetary regime with the most potential for long-term stability in Argentina. It offers a credible pathway to restore confidence and put the country back on a sustainable economic trajectory.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
Alexander W. Salter

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7/12/24

Consumer Prices Decline in June

“Interest rates tell us monetary policy is very tight. The money supply tells us monetary policy is somewhat tight. Will the Fed interpret recent data as a signal it’s time to pivot?” ~Alexander W. Salter
Gerald P. Dwyer

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7/12/24

Mortgage Rates Are Likely To Decline In the Near Future

“Not that long ago, the real rate on Treasury bills was negative. The real rate on Treasury securities is temporarily high due to the Federal Reserve’s policy goal of lowering the inflation rate.” ~Gerald P. Dwyer
Peter C. Earle

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7/5/24

June U-3 Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Ahead?

“This uptick triggers the Sahm Rule, a real-time recession indicator, suggesting that the US economy is in, or is nearing, a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
William J. Luther

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6/28/24

Prices Decline in May, Monetary Policy Tightens

“Prices today are 8.9 percentage points higher than they would have been had the Fed hit its 2-percent inflation target since January 2020.”
Alexander W. Salter

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6/24/24

There’s No Good Reason to Raise the Inflation Target

“Why not give the central bank a wider berth, if it helps to stabilize the economy? Because it doesn’t actually help. Interest rates are a distraction.” ~Alexander W. Salter
Peter C. Earle

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6/17/24

Sense and Nonsense on Petrodollars

“Myths and hyperbole aside, the weakening US-Saudi relationship is one instance amid a growing trend of diminishing US influence in global currency markets and international finance.” ~Peter C. Earle
William J. Luther

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6/12/24

FOMC Holds Rates, Revises Forward Guidance

“Just as the FOMC was slow to adjust policy when inflation surged in late 2021, it will be slow to adjust policy as inflation returns to and falls below its target in 2024.” ~William J Luther
Alexander W. Salter

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6/12/24

Prices Stable in May: Time to Cut Rates?

“M2, the most commonly cited measure of the money supply, is up 0.53 percent from a year ago. Since real income and population are growing faster than this, current M2 growth also suggests money is tight. But this is speculative.” ~Alexander W. Salter
Nicolás Cachanosky

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6/10/24

Politicizing Monetary Policy Won’t Fix the Fed’s Failings

“Even if one thinks Trump is well-suited to make interest rate decisions (and there is little reason to think he is), it does not follow that Trump’s proposed solution would improve monetary policy.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky